Average price only increased on a month-over-month basis, as noted above, by 1.2%, moving from $1,095,617 in February to $1,108,606 in March. I had made some predictions on TRB that this would move to $1,140,000, which was based on my feeling of a 4% increase, but perhaps because the luxury market doesn’t start moving until May and June, the small sample size is showing a flatter market. Year-over-year, we saw a 17.9% decline in February but that has dropped to 14.6%, with the $1,108,606 average home price in March of 2023 being compared to the $1,298,666 average home price in March of 2022. Look for that gap to continue to narrow with every successive month until we’re actually up on a year-over-year basis this fall.
Sales increased significantly for the second month in a row. With a month-over-month increase of 54.3% from January to February, we saw almost as large an increase this past month: 44.3%. That’s 6,896 sales in March compared to 4,793 sales in February. While those 6,896 sales in March were the third-lowest in the month of March since 2002, it’s worth noting that new listings were at the lowest level ever. Buyers can’t buy what isn’t being listed! Year-over-year, sales were down 36.5% from the 10,862 recorded last year, but that figure is down from the 47.0% drop in year-over-year sales in February.
New listings increased by 29.5% on a month-over-month basis from 8,637 in February to 11,184 in March, however, as we noted above, those 11,184 new listings in March were the lowest in any month of March, ever. What else can you say about that? Year-over-year, those 11,184 new listings are down 44.3% from the 20,061 recorded in March of 2022. This market is starving for inventory, so where is it all? Property owners can’t sell because they need to buy first, and there’s nothing to buy. So it’s a self-defeating prophecy?
Active listings increased by 6.9% on a month-over-month basis, which was quite surprising as it indicates that inventory is being absorbed at a slightly slower rate. We saw 9,463 active listings at the end of February, compared to 10,120 this past month. On a year-over-year basis, we actually saw a decline of 0.4%, from 10,157 to 10,120, which you can call a wash or a rounding error, but I call “surprising.” That means, in theory, that this market is even tighter than the market in March of 2022. If that’s a sign of things to come, look out!
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