October 5, 2023 | Market Report

September TRREB Stats

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Average price increased on a month-over-month basis from the $1,082,496 posted in August to $1,119,428 this past month.  That’s a 3.2% increase and it makes up for the July-to-August decline, so the market is now back in line with July pricing.  We only saw a 0.7% increase from August to September in 2022, so this corresponding 3.2% increase is a good sign for the market.  But will we get back to the $1,196,101 average home price that was set in May and represents the year-high?  That’s a stretch, in my opinion, as other metrics from last month show a slowing market.  Comparing to September of 2022, we saw a 3.0% increase from the $1,086,538 average home price set last year, which displays nicely when put up against the 0.8% year-over-year increase in August.

Sales actually dropped from August to September which seems quite odd, but in actual fact, it’s not all that rare.  In the previous twenty years, sales have declined from August to September nine times.  Raise your hand if you knew that!  We saw only 4,642 sales in September which is 12.3% fewer than the 5,294 properties that changed hands in August.  The year-over-year figure was in the red too, as we saw the record-low 4,999 sales in September of 2022 decline by 7.1% to a now-record 4,642 sales.  That’s right, we saw the fewest sales in any month of September, ever, in 2022, and bested that market in 2023.  While average home price increased on a monthly basis, I think the sales volume (or lack thereof…) is a red flag for the market.

New listings increased substantially from the 12,296 properties listed in August, as we saw 16,258 new listings in September.  That’s a 32.2% increase, which sounds high, but in the previous twenty years, the average August-to-September increase is 23.7%, so I wouldn’t say that last month’s activity was anything out of the ordinary.  Year-over-year, the increase was 44.1% over last September’s 11,237 new listings, but for context, consider that the 11,237 new listings posted in September of 2022 was the fewest in any month of September since 2002!

Active listings experienced similar increases on both fronts, primarily as a result of increased listing activity and decreased sales volume.  There were 18,912 properties listed at the end of September which is 22.2% higher than the 15,497 active listings in August.  As with new listings, the year-over-year data is more significant, as we saw a 39.8% in active listings over the 13,529 left at the end of August, 2022.  If the trend with lower sales and higher listings continues, these active listing data points are going to rise much, much higher into October and November.

Written By

David Fleming


p: 416.275.0035

e: david@torontorealtygroup.com

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