Average price increased on a month-over-month basis for the first time since February, albeit by what we might call a rounding error, only moving up 0.4%, from the $1,074,754 recorded in July to $1,079,500 this past month. Nevertheless, that’s still a good sign for those hoping for a rebound in the fall market, as momentum is always important in real estate. Year-over-year, the average home price remains up 0.9%, from the $1,070,201 achieved in August of 2021. It’s worth noting here again, as we did last month, that this 0.9% year-over-year increase is lower than the 1.2% year-over-year increase in July, which was less than the 5.3% recorded in June, and that was less than the 9.4% year-over-year increase in May. Notice how the figure continues to decline? I wrote in this space last month, “…but it almost feels like we’re going to see the first year-over-year decline in average home price since the pandemic, and that could come in August,” but that clearly wasn’t the case, and I don’t expect it to be in September.
Sales saw some positive momentum as well, increasing on a month-over-month basis for the first time since March. We saw a mere 4,912 sales in July and yet August produced 5,627; that’s good for a 14.6% increase. Year-over-year, we saw a 34.2% decline from the 8,549 sales recorded in August of 2021, but the trend is changing, as the July year-over-year figures were a whopping 47.4%! I expect we’ll see a decline of “only” 20% in September, maybe less. There were 9,046 sales in September of 2021, so we’d need to see 7,237 sales for that to happen. Do we really expect to see less than that?
New listings were down for the second month in a row, this time by 12.5%, from 12,046 in July to 10,537 in August. That’s after 16,347 in June and 18,679 in May, so the market is trending the way that it “should,” seeing less inventory in the summer months. Year-over-year, new listings were also down, a modest 0.7% from the 10,615 recorded in August of 2021. We all expect new listings to spike in September, and I’d be surprised if we saw less than 15,000.
Active listings declined on a month-over-month basis as well, which wasn’t that surprising, but the fact that the figure dropped a full 13.2% certainly caught me off guard! With sales up by 14.6%, it makes sense. We saw 15,334 new listings in July and only 13,305 in August – that’s your 13.2% drop. Year-over-year, however, the story could not have been more different! Ready for a big figure? How about 62.3%? That represents the 9,731 new listings recorded in August of 2021 versus the 13,305 in 2022. This is what happens when inventory “accumulates.”
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